docs: add verified NPI services/pricing + companion-db analysis (217k overdue revalidations)

docs/new-sector-compliance-targets.md

@@ -267,3 +267,139 @@ committing volume; these vendors change rates and gate some behind sales.
 - Always personalize with the detected deficiency + a **QR code / short URL** to
   the relevant free lookup tool — that QR is our tracking + conversion bridge,
   the same role the email CTA plays today.
+
+---
+
+## 6. NPI Compliance Programs, "Expired" Signals & Suggested Rates
+
+### What we actually know is expired/dead (honest breakdown)
+NPPES alone has **no license/cert/revalidation expiry date**. The only hard
+"dead" status in the file is **NPI deactivation**. Real dateable "expired"
+signals come from FREE companion databases joined to NPPES by NPI or name.
+
+| Source | What it proves is expired/wrong | Hook |
+|---|---|---|
+| NPPES (deactivation cols 39-41) | NPI deactivated — cannot bill | NPI reactivation (HARD) |
+| NPPES (Last Update col 38) | Record stale (not "expired", a nudge) | NPPES update |
+| **CMS PECOS Revalidation list** | **Medicare revalidation due/overdue date (5-yr)** — the real dateable hook | Revalidation filing (flagship) |
+| **OIG LEIE** | Provider EXCLUDED from federal programs | Exclusion remediation (urgent) |
+| **SAM.gov exclusions** | Debarred / additional exclusions | Screening + remediation |
+| State medical board lookups | License itself expired (not in NPPES) | License renewal |
+
+> Flagship analog to FCC RMD recertification = **CMS Medicare revalidation due
+> date**, joined to NPPES by NPI. That is the genuine "your X expired" signal.
+
+### Programs to sell (ranked by trigger defensibility)
+1. Medicare PECOS revalidation filing (flagship)
+2. NPI reactivation (hard NPPES signal)
+3. NPPES data update / attestation
+4. State license renewal monitoring / filing
+5. OIG/SAM exclusion screening + remediation
+6. CAQH profile attestation (re-attest ~every 120 days)
+7. HIPAA compliance package (universal, not detectable)
+8. Credentialing / re-credentialing with payers
+9. Taxonomy / enrollment cleanup
+
+### Suggested rates
+| Service | Price | Cadence | Notes |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| NPPES data update / attestation | **$149** | one-time | low-friction entry product |
+| NPI reactivation | **$249** | one-time | hard trigger |
+| Medicare PECOS revalidation filing | **$399** | every 5 yrs | flagship, high stakes |
+| State license renewal (per license) | **$149/license** | annual/biennial | recurring |
+| OIG/SAM exclusion screening | **$99/yr** ($19/mo) | recurring | sticky subscription |
+| CAQH attestation/maintenance | **$249/yr** | recurring | high-churn pain |
+| HIPAA compliance package | **$799–$1,499** | one-time + annual | biggest ticket |
+| Credentialing (per payer) | **$199/payer** | as needed | volume add-on |
+| **Provider Compliance Bundle** | **$599–$899/yr** | annual subscription | revalidation watch + exclusion screening + NPPES upkeep |
+
+Pricing logic: solo/small providers are price-sensitive, but fear of losing
+Medicare billing privileges (revalidation, exclusion) supports premium pricing on
+those two. Data-update products stay cheap as door-openers. The **annual bundle**
+is the goal — mirrors the trucking compliance-bundle model for recurring revenue.
+
+### Recommendation
+Lead with **Medicare revalidation** (real dateable expiry from the free CMS list,
+like FCC RMD recert), use **NPI-deactivated** + **stale-NPPES** as secondary
+triggers, package into a **$599-899/yr Provider Compliance Bundle**.
+
+---
+
+## 7. Companion Databases — VERIFIED (downloaded & inspected)
+
+All free, all joinable to NPPES by **NPI**. Counts below are from the live files
+pulled on the session date. This is the data that turns "stale record" into a
+real, dateable "your X expired" hook.
+
+### 7.1 CMS Revalidation Due Date List (the flagship)
+`revalidation_base.csv` — **~2.9M rows, 2.42M distinct NPIs.**
+Columns: Enrollment ID, **National Provider Identifier (NPI)**, First/Last Name,
+Organization Name, Enrollment State Code, Enrollment Type, Provider Type Text,
+Enrollment Specialty, **Revalidation Due Date**, **Adjusted Due Date**,
+Individual Total Reassign To, Receiving Benefits Reassignment.
+
+**Verified population:**
+- **261,878 enrollments have a concrete due date set** (rest are "TBD" = CMS
+  hasn't scheduled them yet).
+- **217,968 are PAST DUE (overdue revalidation)** — these are the hottest leads.
+- 43,910 are upcoming (future-dated) — perfect for "due soon" pre-emptive offers.
+
+This is the direct analog to the FCC RMD recertification date. Sell **Medicare
+PECOS revalidation filing ($399)** to the 217,968 overdue + watch service to the
+upcoming ones. Join to NPPES to get their address/phone for outreach.
+
+### 7.2 OIG LEIE (Exclusions)
+`UPDATED.csv` — **83,256 excluded providers/entities.**
+Columns: LASTNAME, FIRSTNAME, MIDNAME, BUSNAME, GENERAL, SPECIALTY, UPIN, **NPI**,
+DOB, ADDRESS, CITY, STATE, ZIP, EXCLTYPE, EXCLDATE, REINDATE, WAIVERDATE, WVRSTATE.
+
+**Verified:** only **8,608 have a valid joinable NPI** (most exclusions predate
+NPI or are entities w/ `0000000000`). Use this two ways:
+- As a **screening product** sold to OTHER providers ($99/yr) — "we check you and
+  your staff against LEIE monthly."
+- As a **remediation hook** to the 8,608 excluded-with-NPI (reinstatement help),
+  though excluded providers are a harder, riskier audience.
+
+### 7.3 Medicare Opt-Out Affidavits
+`OptOut_*.csv` — **56,300 opt-out affidavits.**
+Columns: First/Last Name, **npi**, Specialty, **Optout Effective Date**,
+**Optout End Date**, address, City, State, Zip, Eligible to Order and Refer,
+Last updated.
+
+**Verified:** **22,379 have an opt-out period ending within 12 months.** Opt-out
+auto-renews every 2 years unless cancelled — a real dateable event. Sell
+**opt-out renewal / re-enrollment decision support**.
+
+### 7.4 Order & Referring File
+`OrderReferring_*.csv` — **~2.0M rows.**
+Columns: **NPI**, LAST_NAME, FIRST_NAME, PARTB, DME, HHA, PMD, HOSPICE (Y/N flags).
+Tells us which providers are eligible to order/refer for each program. Use to
+**qualify leads** (a provider missing eligibility they should have = enrollment
+gap = service opportunity).
+
+### 7.5 PPEF Public Provider Enrollment
+`PPEF_Enrollment_Extract_*.csv` — **~2.98M rows.**
+Columns: **NPI**, MULTIPLE_NPI_FLAG, PECOS_ASCT_CNTL_ID, ENRLMT_ID,
+PROVIDER_TYPE_CD/DESC, STATE_CD, names, ORG_NAME. This is the authoritative
+"who is actively enrolled in Medicare" list. Join against NPPES to find:
+- NPPES providers **NOT in PPEF** = not Medicare-enrolled (enrollment opportunity).
+- Cross-check enrollment state vs NPPES practice state (mismatch = cleanup).
+
+### Join architecture
+```
+NPPES (10M providers, addr/phone/fax)         <- outreach contact + base universe
+  ⨝ NPI ⨝
+Revalidation Due (217,968 overdue)            <- flagship "expired" hook + $399
+  ⨝ NPI ⨝
+LEIE (8,608 excluded w/ NPI)                  <- screening product + urgent flag
+  ⨝ NPI ⨝
+Opt-Out (22,379 ending <12mo)                 <- renewal hook
+  ⨝ NPI ⨝
+PPEF / Order-Referring                        <- enrollment gaps / lead qualification
+```
+
+### Headline takeaway
+The single best, defensible, dateable hook is **217,968 providers with OVERDUE
+Medicare revalidation**, each enrichable with NPPES address/phone/fax for
+outreach. That is a larger and harder-deadline audience than the FCC RMD list,
+and the $399 revalidation filing is a clean flagship product.