Add comprehensive FMCSA trucking compliance product plan

Covers all 5 phases: data pipeline (done), additional checks (UCR,
IFTA, IRP, D&A, new entrant, hazmat, state-level), service catalog
with 10 services and pricing, email campaign segmentation for 29K+
overdue carriers, and filing automation roadmap.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

docs/fmcsa-trucking-plan.md

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+# FMCSA / Trucking Compliance Services — Product Plan
+
+## Market Overview
+
+- **2,077,308** total motor carriers in FMCSA census
+- **1,584,234** with email addresses (76%)
+- **29,113** with overdue MCS-150 (biennial update >2 years old) and email
+- 97% of carriers have fewer than 20 trucks — small operators who can't be bothered with paperwork
+
+## Phase 1: Compliance Checker + Data Pipeline (DONE)
+
+### Completed
+- [x] `fmcsa_carriers` table (migration 078)
+- [x] Socrata data downloader (`scripts/workers/fmcsa_census_downloader.py`)
+- [x] FMCSA QCMobile API integration (web key registered)
+- [x] API route: `GET /api/v1/dot/lookup?dot=XXXXXX` — 7 compliance checks
+- [x] API route: `GET /api/v1/dot/search?name=Acme` — name search
+- [x] Frontend: `/tools/dot-compliance-check` — full site chrome, orange theme
+- [x] Homepage: orange banner + "Five areas" with Trucking/DOT card
+- [x] API access restricted (nginx — public endpoints only, admin blocked)
+
+### Current Checks (from FMCSA QCMobile API)
+| Check | Source | Status |
+|-------|--------|--------|
+| Operating status (allowed to operate Y/N) | FMCSA API | ✅ Live |
+| MCS-150 biennial update (overdue detection) | Census + API | ✅ Live |
+| Insurance filing (BIPD, cargo, bond) | FMCSA API | ✅ Live |
+| Safety rating (S/C/U) | FMCSA API | ✅ Live |
+| Operating authority (common/contract/broker) | FMCSA API | ✅ Live |
+| Out-of-service rate vs national average | FMCSA API | ✅ Live |
+| Crash record (fatal/injury/total) | FMCSA API | ✅ Live |
+
+## Phase 2: Additional Compliance Checks
+
+### UCR (Unified Carrier Registration) — HIGH PRIORITY
+- **What:** Annual registration + fee ($59–$7,511 based on fleet size)
+- **Who:** All interstate for-hire carriers, brokers, freight forwarders
+- **Penalty:** Vehicles placed out of service at roadside inspection
+- **Data source:** ucr.gov — no public API, requires scraping individual lookups
+- **Implementation:** Playwright scraper to check UCR status by DOT#, add as check in the compliance checker
+- **Revenue opportunity:** UCR filing service ($49–99 per carrier per year)
+
+### IFTA (International Fuel Tax Agreement) — MEDIUM
+- **What:** Quarterly fuel tax returns + decals for multi-jurisdiction carriers
+- **Who:** Carriers operating in 2+ IFTA jurisdictions
+- **Penalty:** Fines + inability to operate in non-base jurisdictions
+- **Data source:** State-level — no central database. Would need to ask during intake.
+- **Implementation:** Informational check based on carrier operation type (interstate = likely needs IFTA)
+- **Revenue opportunity:** IFTA quarterly filing service ($99–199/quarter)
+
+### IRP (International Registration Plan) — MEDIUM
+- **What:** Apportioned plates/registration for multi-state CMV operation
+- **Who:** Interstate carriers (vehicles >26,000 lbs or 3+ axles)
+- **Data source:** State-level — no central database
+- **Implementation:** Informational check based on carrier type
+- **Revenue opportunity:** IRP registration service ($149–299)
+
+### Drug & Alcohol Testing Program — HIGH VALUE
+- **What:** DOT-mandated random drug/alcohol testing pool, written policy, MRO, DER
+- **Who:** Every carrier with CDL drivers (basically everyone)
+- **Penalty:** Driver disqualification, carrier placed out of service, fines up to $16,000/violation
+- **Data source:** No public database — self-certified compliance
+- **Implementation:** Not a "check" — this is a service offering. Sell enrollment in a testing consortium + written policy + compliance binder.
+- **Revenue opportunity:** $199/year per carrier (consortium enrollment + policy) — RECURRING
+- **Partners needed:** Third-party testing consortium (e.g., DISA, US Drug Testing Labs, National Drug Screening)
+
+### New Entrant Safety Audit Prep — MEDIUM VALUE
+- **What:** New carriers must pass an FMCSA safety audit within 18 months
+- **Who:** Carriers with DOT authority issued in the last 18 months
+- **Data source:** SAFER shows `add_date` in census — can filter for recent registrations
+- **Implementation:** Filter census for `add_date` within last 18 months, target with audit prep service
+- **Revenue opportunity:** Safety audit prep package ($299–499)
+
+### ELD (Electronic Logging Device) — LOW PRIORITY
+- **What:** Must use FMCSA-registered ELD for hours of service tracking
+- **Who:** Nearly all CMV operators (exemptions for short-haul, older vehicles)
+- **Data source:** FMCSA publishes registered ELD device list, but no per-carrier compliance data
+- **Implementation:** Informational only — cannot verify compliance externally
+- **Revenue opportunity:** Low — ELD compliance is mostly handled by device vendors
+
+### Hazmat (HM-232 / PHMSA) — NICHE
+- **What:** PHMSA registration + security plan for hazmat carriers
+- **Who:** Carriers hauling hazardous materials (hm_flag=true in census)
+- **Data source:** PHMSA has lookup, not in FMCSA API. Census has `hm_flag` field.
+- **Implementation:** Flag hazmat carriers and offer PHMSA registration check
+- **Revenue opportunity:** Hazmat compliance package ($399–799)
+
+### State-Level Permits & Registrations
+| State Filing | States | Data Available | Priority |
+|-------------|--------|---------------|----------|
+| Overweight/oversize permits | All 50 | State DOT websites | Low — too fragmented |
+| State motor carrier tax | ~12 states (CA, OR, NM, NY, KY, etc.) | State comptroller sites | Medium — target high-volume states |
+| State DOT registration | Varies | State DMV/DOT systems | Low |
+| Unified Carrier Registration (state enforcement) | 41 participating states | ucr.gov | High — covered in UCR above |
+| CARB (California Air Resources Board) | CA only | CARB TRU lookup | Medium — big market, one state |
+| Oregon weight-mile tax | OR only | ODOT system | Low |
+| New York HUT (Highway Use Tax) | NY only | NY DTF system | Low |
+| Kentucky KYU / weight distance tax | KY only | KY DOR system | Low |
+| New Mexico weight distance tax | NM only | NM MVD system | Low |
+
+**Recommended state-level focus:** California (CARB) — largest market, real enforcement, public lookup available.
+
+## Phase 3: Service Catalog & Pricing
+
+### Services to Add to compliance-orders.ts
+| Service | Slug | Price | Gov Fee | Notes |
+|---------|------|-------|---------|-------|
+| MCS-150 Biennial Update | `mcs150-update` | $79 | $0 | Filed online via SAFER |
+| BOC-3 Process Agent Filing | `boc3-filing` | $149 | $0 | Designate PW as process agent in all 50 states |
+| UCR Annual Registration | `ucr-registration` | $79 | $59–$7,511 | Fee based on fleet size |
+| New Operating Authority (MC#) | `mc-authority` | $499 | $300 | FMCSA application fee |
+| DOT Number Registration | `dot-registration` | $149 | $0 | New USDOT number |
+| Drug & Alcohol Program Setup | `dot-drug-alcohol` | $199/yr | $0 | Consortium + policy + DER — RECURRING |
+| Safety Audit Preparation | `safety-audit-prep` | $399 | $0 | New entrant audit prep package |
+| DOT Full Compliance Bundle | `dot-full-compliance` | $599 | varies | MCS-150 + BOC-3 + UCR + D&A program |
+| IFTA Quarterly Filing | `ifta-quarterly` | $99/qtr | varies | State fuel tax return |
+| Hazmat/PHMSA Registration | `phmsa-registration` | $499 | $0–$2,575 | HM-232 registration |
+
+### Pricing Strategy
+- MCS-150 at $79 is the loss leader / entry point (like CPNI for telecom)
+- BOC-3 at $149 is recurring — carrier needs it as long as they operate
+- Drug & Alcohol at $199/yr is the real recurring revenue play
+- Full bundle at $599 is the upsell for carriers with multiple deficiencies
+
+## Phase 4: Email Campaign
+
+### Target Segmentation
+| Segment | Count | Criteria | Message |
+|---------|-------|----------|---------|
+| Severely overdue (4+ years) | ~21,000 | mcs150_parsed < 2022, has email | "Your USDOT may be deactivated" |
+| Overdue (2-4 years) | ~8,000 | mcs150_parsed 2022-2024, has email | "MCS-150 biennial update is past due" |
+| Due soon (expiring 2026) | ~hundreds of thousands | mcs150_parsed in 2024 | "Your MCS-150 update is coming due" |
+| New entrants (first 18 months) | ~50,000 | add_date > 18 months ago | "Safety audit deadline approaching" |
+| Hazmat carriers | ~100,000+ | hm_flag=true | "PHMSA registration compliance check" |
+
+### Campaign Approach
+- Same Listmonk infrastructure as FCC campaigns
+- Warmup schedule (200/day → ramp up)
+- Link to DOT compliance checker with `?dot={DOT#}&email={email}` pre-filled
+- Use `@TrackLink` on all CTAs (learned from FCC campaign mistake)
+- Free compliance check as the CTA (not direct sell)
+
+## Phase 5: Automation (Future)
+
+### Playwright Filing Automation
+- MCS-150 updates via SAFER web portal
+- UCR registration via ucr.gov
+- BOC-3 filing via FMCSA L&I system
+- MC authority application via FMCSA URS
+
+### Recurring Revenue
+- Annual UCR registration reminders + filing
+- Biennial MCS-150 update reminders + filing
+- Drug & alcohol consortium annual renewal
+- BOC-3 process agent renewal
+
+## Technical Architecture
+
+### Data Flow
+```
+Socrata API (census) → fmcsa_carriers table (2M records)
+                              ↓
+FMCSA QCMobile API ← /api/v1/dot/lookup (real-time per carrier)
+                              ↓
+                     /tools/dot-compliance-check (frontend)
+                              ↓
+                     Listmonk campaigns (email outreach)
+                              ↓
+                     Order flow → worker handlers → filing
+```
+
+### Cron Jobs Needed
+- Daily: FMCSA census delta download (Socrata API)
+- Weekly: UCR status scrape for flagged carriers
+- Monthly: New entrant identification (recent DOT registrations)
+
+### Database Tables
+- `fmcsa_carriers` — census data (migration 078) ✅
+- `fmcsa_compliance_check_log` — search analytics (TBD)
+- `dot_compliance_orders` — or reuse `compliance_orders` with new service slugs (TBD)
+
+## Competitive Landscape
+
+### Existing DOT compliance service providers
+- **DOT Compliance Group** (dotcompliancegroup.com) — full service, unknown pricing
+- **J.J. Keller** (jjkeller.com) — established, enterprise-focused, expensive
+- **Foley Carrier Services** (foleyservices.com) — insurance + compliance, big players
+- **FMCSA Registration** (fmcsaregistration.com) — direct competitor, $149–499 per service
+- **Moving Authority** (movingauthority.com) — MC authority specialists
+- **DOT Registrations** (dotregistrations.org) — similar pricing model
+
+### Our Differentiator
+- **Free compliance checker tool** — nobody else offers this as a lead magnet
+- **AI-powered deficiency detection** at scale (same as FCC model)
+- **Email outreach to 1.5M+ carriers** with specific deficiency data
+- **Lower pricing** through automation (no manual data entry)
+- **Bundled services** (telecom + trucking for carriers that do both)